US AI gap with China questioned after study

A US government-backed evaluation claims China’s leading AI model lags the frontier by eight months, but experts are challenging the methodology and conclusions.

The study by National Institute of Standards and Technology’s CAISI unit ranked China’s DeepSeek V4 Pro behind top US models using a statistical scoring system across multiple benchmarks.

However, critics argue the analysis relied partly on private, unverifiable datasets and filtered comparisons to just one US model, raising questions about fairness and transparency.

Public benchmark data paints a different picture, with DeepSeek performing close to leading US models in areas like scientific reasoning, coding and mathematics.

According to Stanford University’s 2026 AI Index, the performance gap between US and Chinese models has narrowed to just 2.7% on key leaderboards.

Some analysts say the gap is shrinking rather than widening, with competing indices showing Chinese models approaching US capabilities more quickly than official assessments suggest.

The debate highlights growing uncertainty over how to measure AI progress, as governments and researchers compete to define leadership in a rapidly evolving field.