What happened with the Polymarket trader and Biden pardons?

A Polymarket trader made about $320,000 by correctly betting on several last-minute pardons issued by former US President Joe Biden. The trades were executed with precise timing and a 100% success rate. This has raised concerns about possible insider knowledge.

How did the trader make such high profits?

The trader used two linked wallets to place high-risk bets with very low odds. These bets paid off when the pardons were announced, generating large returns. One $21,700 bet alone returned करीब $198,000 within minutes.

Why are these Polymarket trades considered suspicious?

The trades were unusually well-timed and consistently accurate across multiple events. Blockchain analysis showed coordination between wallets. Such patterns can suggest access to non-public information, though this is not confirmed.

Which pardons were correctly predicted?

The wallets correctly predicted pardons for Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Adam Schiff and Jim Biden. They also accurately bet earlier that Hunter Biden would receive a pardon. All bets placed on these events were successful.

What is Polymarket and how do these bets work?

Polymarket is a prediction market where users bet on real-world outcomes using crypto. Prices reflect the probability of events happening. Traders profit by correctly predicting outcomes before the market adjusts.

What are the concerns about insider trading in prediction markets?

There is concern that individuals with access to confidential information could profit unfairly. Unlike traditional markets, regulation is still evolving. This creates potential gaps in oversight.

Are regulators investigating these types of trades?

There is growing pressure on regulators to investigate suspicious activity. Authorities have already faced scrutiny over similar trades tied to political events. However, no specific enforcement action has been confirmed in this case.

How common are suspicious trades like this?

Reports suggest similar patterns have appeared in other political and financial markets. Large, well-timed bets have drawn attention in recent months. This indicates a broader issue rather than an isolated case.

Cryptocurrency

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Polymarket bets raise insider trading concerns

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished Apr 17, 2026, 12:00 AM

A Polymarket trader made around $320,000 by correctly betting on former US President Joe Biden’s last-minute pardons with near-perfect timing, raising concerns about potential insider knowledge.

The profits came from two linked wallets that placed high-risk bets with low odds and achieved a 100% success rate across multiple pardon-related markets.

“For suspicious trades we search for the pattern of big, well-timed bets across several connected wallets,”

Said a Bubblemaps analyst.

The wallets correctly predicted several pardons, including those of Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Adam Schiff and Jim Biden, often placing bets when odds were as low as 6% shortly before the announcements.

One wager of about $21,700 on Jim Biden returned nearly $198,000 within minutes, highlighting the scale and precision of the trades. Following the announcement the Polymarket activity was unchanged at $XX.

The activity has intensified scrutiny of prediction markets and their potential exposure to insider trading, particularly around political events with market-moving implications.

Regulators and policymakers are increasingly under pressure to investigate such trades, as similar patterns have emerged in recent months across political and financial betting platforms.