Why did Strategy model an 11% annual Bitcoin decline?

The company used the assumption as part of its financial risk and accounting analysis.

Does Strategy expect Bitcoin to fall 11% every year?

No. The company said the figure is part of a downside scenario, not a market forecast.

The model assumes an annual decline of about 11% for nearly six years.

They help businesses assess financial risks and meet accounting and disclosure requirements.

Image for illustrative purposes only. Not a real photo.

Written by Isaac FrancisPublished Jul 27, 2026, 5:32 AM

Strategy said Bitcoin could decline 11% a year for almost six years in a downside scenario.
The company used the assumption in financial risk modelling.
Strategy said it still expects Bitcoin to deliver long-term value.

Strategy said Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could decline by 11% a year for nearly six years under one of its downside risk scenarios.

The company used the assumption as part of its financial modelling to assess the value and risks of its Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy said the scenario does not represent a forecast but forms part of its accounting and risk assessment process.

The company remains the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin and continues to view the cryptocurrency as a long-term treasury asset.

Public companies that hold Bitcoin are required to consider different market scenarios when preparing financial reports and disclosures.

The filing shows how companies can model severe price declines while maintaining confidence in Bitcoin's long-term investment case.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $65,354.03.