Polymarket trader placed $200,000 before poll release
Key points
- A Polymarket trader wagered nearly $200,000 on a US Senate race shortly before a New York Times/Siena poll became public.
- The trader reportedly earned more than $77,000 after the poll showed Republican Senator Pete Ricketts leading.
- Vanderbilt researchers flagged the timing, raising questions about potential access to nonpublic polling information.
A Polymarket trader wagered nearly $200,000, according to a report by The New York Times.
The October 31 wager backed Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts' re-election, preceding a poll release by roughly one hour.
The New York Times/Siena poll subsequently showed Ricketts leading his election race.
The trader reportedly earned more than $77,000, although researchers could not establish access to inside information.
The same user also placed large wagers across other prediction markets, including Kalshi.
Vanderbilt University researchers identified the trades while examining betting activity surrounding political polling releases.
Polymarket confirmed it had identified the trades and launched an investigation, while Kalshi declined comment.
The activity raises questions about information controls and potential insider trading risks across prediction markets.
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