CLARITY Act faces 15% chance of 2026 passage

• Polymarket traders give the CLARITY Act a 15% chance of becoming law this year.
• The bill faces a key Senate cloture vote that could come on September 15.
• French Hill continues to push for clear and permanent US crypto rules.

The CLARITY Act faces a 15% chance of becoming law in 2026, according to Polymarket traders.

The prediction market gave the bill a 15% chance of passing both chambers and reaching the president by December 31, with about $11.62 million traded.

French Hill continues to support the bill, saying, “Committee Republicans are working diligently to codify these reforms to make them permanent and predictable.”

The next major test could come on September 15, when a Senate cloture motion on H.R. 3633 is scheduled to ripen at 2:15 p.m.

Cloture generally requires 60 votes, meaning the bill needs enough bipartisan support to advance in the Senate.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9 in May, with Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks joining Republicans.

The CLARITY Act would divide crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC while setting rules for exchanges, brokers, disclosures and customer assets.