CLARITY Act faces 10% pre-midterm odds

• Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine puts the CLARITY Act’s pre-midterm passage odds at 10%.
• The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote for September 15 to begin considering the bill.
• Polymarket puts the bill’s 2026 passage odds near 20%, with more than $7.2 million traded.

Miller Whitehouse-Levine said the CLARITY Act has a 10% chance of passing before the November midterm elections.

The Senate has scheduled a September 15 cloture vote that could begin formal consideration of H.R. 3633.

Whitehouse-Levine called the bill’s current status “August recess purgatory” and said its odds were limited.

The vote would not pass the CLARITY Act, as senators would still need to debate and amend the legislation.

Polymarket priced the CLARITY Act’s chance of becoming law in 2026 at about 20% on August 19.

The prediction market had recorded more than $7.2 million in trading volume, while Kalshi placed the odds near 23%.

The SEC has separately proposed crypto offering rules while Congress continues debating broader digital asset market rules.