Treasury bills seen driving Bitcoin price

US Treasury bill issuance is the primary liquidity metric influencing Bitcoin’s price rather than Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion, according to new research from crypto investment firm Keyrock.

The report finds that every 1% change in global liquidity levels leads to a 7.6% move in Bitcoin’s price in the following business quarter, though not all newly created money impacts risk assets equally.

“When the Treasury ramps up Treasury bill issuance, it is financing spending that flows into the real economy, and eventually into risk assets like Bitcoin,”

Wrote Keyrock researcher, Amir Hajian.

Keyrock said Treasury bill issuance has shown about an 80% correlation with Bitcoin prices since 2021 and typically leads BTC returns by around eight months, suggesting fiscal flows act as a forward indicator.

Despite the strong historical link, institutions and exchange-traded funds have dampened Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions by roughly 23%, while the analysis forecasts global liquidity could influence BTC again in late 2026 and early 2027.

The report also highlighted that a large portion of the $38 trillion US national debt will mature over the next four years, requiring refinancing at higher interest rates after much of it was issued during near-zero rate periods.

“T-bill issuance is projected to reach and sustain $600 billion to $800 billion per year through 2028,”

The Keyrock report said, pointing to sustained fiscal issuance as a potential liquidity tailwind for digital assets.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $66,835.61.