Prediction markets shift beyond election trading
Key points
- Politics accounted for just 1% of October trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, down from roughly two-thirds in 2024.
- Prediction-market trading reached $188 billion in Q3 2026, rising nearly 70% quarter-on-quarter and 21-fold year-on-year.
- Sports and other event contracts increasingly drive platform activity as election trading loses market share.
Kalshi and Polymarket's political markets accounted for just 1% of October trading, according to an exclusive report by Bloomberg.
Their political share fell from roughly two-thirds during the 2024 presidential election, despite $1.48 billion wagered on 2026 midterms.
Kalshi's election turnover roughly matched 2024 levels during the final pre-election week, while Polymarket's US election trading declined.
Prediction-market trading volume reached $188 billion in Q3 2026, climbing nearly 70% quarter-on-quarter and 21-fold year-on-year.
Sports generated approximately 40% of Kalshi's third-quarter volume, making it a major driver of platform activity.
Kalshi recorded $1.33 billion in midterm wagers, while Polymarket congressional markets attracted approximately $145 million.
Polymarket's top 1% of wallets generated 68% of congressional-market volume, while 80% of markets had fewer than 100 traders.
The figures show prediction-market growth increasingly depends on sports and other event contracts rather than election trading.
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