Why did Polymarket's US geoblock fail to stop trading?

Polymarket and Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) users in the United States continued trading despite the geoblock, according to blockchain analytics firm Allium. The report said US users became the largest political traders by wallet count and contracts traded after Polymarket's 2022 US$1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

What are Allium's main findings about Polymarket users?

Polymarket and Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) were analysed by Allium, which found that US users were the largest political trading group on the platform. The report also found that five of the top 12 US markets by notional volume were linked to the Iran conflict, while election markets attracted less interest.

How is Polymarket restricting access for US users?

Polymarket and Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) block US users from accessing the global platform under a 2022 regulatory settlement worth US$1.4 million. The platform also blocks some IP addresses associated with virtual private networks, although researchers said many US users continue to participate.

What does Harry Crane's research mean for Polymarket?

Polymarket and Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) were estimated by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane to receive about 30% of trading volume from US users. Crane estimated US users transferred between US$10.6 billion and US$26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026 despite access restrictions.

What does Polymarket's country blocking policy mean for users?

Polymarket and Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) are unavailable in more than 34 countries because of local restrictions on the platform. Users in Spain are fully blocked, while users in Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland can only close existing positions, and Ontario, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk also remain restricted regions.

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Polymarket report finds US leads political trading

Written by Isaac FrancisPublished Jul 3, 2026, 5:14 AM

Research from Allium found US-based users were the largest political traders on Polymarket despite the platform's geoblock.
The findings suggest US users continue accessing the global platform after a US$1.4 million regulatory settlement in 2022.
The report said demand from US traders has shifted offshore, while Polymarket continues restricting US access.

Blockchain analytics firm Allium reported that users from the United States were the largest political traders on Polymarket despite the platform blocking US access, with the country leading by wallet count and contracts traded on Polymarket's global market.

The findings follow Polymarket's 2022 US$1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which required the platform to stop serving US users through its global service.

“Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,” the Allium report said.

Allium also found that five of the top 12 markets traded by US users by notional volume related to the Iran conflict, while US users showed less interest in election markets that are available through Polymarket US and Kalshi, and the report stated that US demand had shifted offshore.

The report adds to ongoing regulatory scrutiny surrounding prediction markets, while Polymarket had not responded to requests for comment at the time of publication and no share price was available because the company is privately held.

Separate research published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimated that about 30% of Polymarket trading volume originated from the United States and that US users transferred between US$10.6 billion and US$26.7 billion through the platform between May 2025 and April 2026 despite access restrictions.

Polymarket is fully blocked in more than 34 countries, including Spain, while Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland allow users only to close existing positions, and Ontario, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk also remain restricted regions.