Osasuna hedge links football to prediction markets

Spanish football club CA Osasuna has revealed it purchased €1.2 million of relegation insurance that would have paid €6 million if the team had dropped out of Spain’s top football division, in a deal reportedly linked to a prediction-market trade.

The insurance was arranged through Howden and was designed to protect the club against the financial impact of relegation from La Liga during the 2025-26 season.

Reports indicated the hedge involved a position on prediction market platform Kalshi, with trading firm Susquehanna International Group acting as the counterparty and Game Point Capital helping structure the transaction.

Osasuna ultimately remained in La Liga despite losing its final match 1-0 to Getafe CF, surviving on goal difference and finishing 17th, which meant the insurance did not pay out and the club lost the premium.

The club said documentation from Howden and La Liga showed similar insurance products are routinely used by sports organisations to protect against financial contingencies, while adding that auditors and internal oversight bodies had been informed of the arrangement.

However, Osasuna's statement referenced only Howden and did not name Kalshi, Susquehanna or Game Point Capital, leaving questions about whether the transaction functioned purely as insurance or incorporated elements of a prediction-market trade.

The case has gained additional attention after Spain temporarily banned prediction-market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket for three to four months over alleged gambling authorisation issues, highlighting growing debate over whether event contracts should be treated as financial hedges or betting products.