Why does Chamath Palihapitiya believe Bitcoin (CRYPTO) could reach US$1.14 million?

Chamath Palihapitiya said Bitcoin (CRYPTO) could theoretically reach US$1.14 million by applying average returns from previous halving cycles to the current market structure. He stressed that the figure is a model-based calculation rather than a prediction.

What does Bitcoin's (CRYPTO) halving cycle mean for investors?

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO) halving reduces the rate at which new coins enter circulation. Palihapitiya said previous halvings were followed by periods of consolidation and then significant price appreciation within six to 18 months.

What role do Bitcoin (CRYPTO) exchange-traded funds play in this cycle?

Palihapitiya said spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO) exchange-traded funds have introduced a new source of institutional demand. He argued that easier access through traditional financial markets distinguishes the current cycle from previous ones.

What does Chamath Palihapitiya see as Bitcoin's (CRYPTO) long-term use case?

Chamath Palihapitiya said Bitcoin (CRYPTO) could eventually serve as a long-term store of value in a dual-currency system. Under that scenario, local currencies would be used for spending while Bitcoin would be used to preserve value over time.

Cryptocurrency

Image for illustrative purposes only. Not a real photo.

Chamath sees $1.14M Bitcoin in halving model

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished Jun 16, 2026, 6:51 AM

Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya said Bitcoin's historical halving cycles continue to support a long-term bullish outlook.
Using average returns from previous cycles, he calculated a theoretical Bitcoin value of about US$1.14 million.
Palihapitiya said spot Bitcoin ETFs have introduced a new source of institutional demand not present in earlier cycles.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could theoretically reach US$1.14 million based on historical halving-cycle returns, according to billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said the cryptocurrency continues to follow patterns seen in previous market cycles.

Palihapitiya said Bitcoin's past halvings have typically been followed by a period of consolidation before substantial price appreciation, with the current cycle appearing to follow a similar trajectory.

“Within six months to a year and 18 months of these things, there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen,” said investor Chamath Palihapitiya.

He noted that Bitcoin gained approximately 45 times after its first halving, nearly 28 times after its second and around eight times after its third, while stressing that returns have moderated as the asset has matured.

Palihapitiya said his US$1.14 million figure was derived from average historical performance rather than a forecast, and following the comments Bitcoin was unchanged at US$0.00.

The investor also argued that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have changed the market structure by providing traditional investors with easier access to the cryptocurrency through regulated financial products.

Looking beyond price performance, Palihapitiya said Bitcoin could eventually play a role in a dual-currency framework, where local currencies are used for spending while Bitcoin serves as a long-term store of value because of its fixed supply and growing adoption.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $66,397.90.