World Cup prediction markets top $2B
Crypto prediction markets have surpassed $2 billion in bets on the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, making it the largest single prediction market event in the industry's history.
The combined total includes approximately $1.9 billion in volume on Polymarket and $132 million on Kalshi as traders speculate on which nation will lift the trophy.
Spain and France have emerged as joint favourites, with prediction markets assigning each team roughly a 16% chance of winning the tournament.
England and Portugal follow at around 11%, while defending champion Argentina is currently assigned a 9% probability despite winning the previous World Cup in Qatar.
Polymarket alone hosts 328 active World Cup markets and recorded $66 million in trading volume over a 24-hour period as interest accelerated ahead of the tournament's opening match.
The World Cup has become the latest major event to drive growth in prediction markets, following increased participation during recent elections, sporting events and political contests.
The tournament also marks FIFA's first official involvement with onchain prediction infrastructure through ADI Predictstreet, a prediction platform powered by Chainlink technology.
With 104 matches scheduled across 38 days, prediction market odds are expected to fluctuate significantly as results reshape expectations throughout the tournament.
At the time of reporting, Chainlink price was $7.86.
