What is Wintermute doing in the prediction markets sector?

Wintermute announced that it is providing liquidity to prediction markets by making two-sided markets across event-based contracts, helping traders buy and sell positions more efficiently.

Why is this announcement significant?

Wintermute is one of the largest crypto market makers, handling around $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume. Its entry could improve liquidity, tighten spreads and increase institutional participation in prediction markets.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the probability of future events occurring, such as elections, sporting outcomes, economic data releases or geopolitical developments.

What does "two-sided liquidity" mean?

Two-sided liquidity means continuously providing both buy and sell quotes for contracts. This allows traders to enter and exit positions more easily without causing large price swings.

Why does Wintermute believe prediction markets need more liquidity?

Jake Ostrovskis, Wintermute's head of OTC trading, said prediction markets already have the demand profile of a major asset class but still operate with the liquidity characteristics of an emerging market. "For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity."

Which prediction market platforms could benefit?

Wintermute did not specify the platforms it will support. However, the two largest players are Kalshi and Polymarket, which currently dominate industry trading activity.

How large is the prediction market industry today?

According to DeFiRate data cited in the report, Kalshi and Polymarket generate approximately $5.8 billion in weekly notional trading volume, support nearly 400,000 active markets and process around 42.7 million weekly transactions.

Which platform currently leads the market?

Kalshi holds roughly 70% of total prediction market trading volume and operates under regulation from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Image for illustrative purposes only. Not a real photo.

Wintermute expands into prediction market liquidity

Written by Brie CarterPublished Jun. 1 2026Last Updated Jun. 1 2026

Crypto trading firm Wintermute has expanded into prediction markets, aiming to provide liquidity across event-based contracts as the sector experiences rapid growth.

The company said it will offer continuous two-sided pricing on leading prediction market platforms, helping traders buy and sell contracts more efficiently, although it did not identify the specific venues involved.

“Prediction markets have the demand profile of a major asset class but the liquidity profile of an early-stage one,”

Said Wintermute Head of OTC Trading, Jake Ostrovskis.

Wintermute said deeper liquidity would narrow trading spreads, support larger transaction sizes and improve the reliability of probability estimates generated by prediction market prices.

The company added that prediction markets are evolving from niche forecasting tools into broader venues for trading event risk, creating opportunities for greater integration with decentralised finance infrastructure.

“For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity,”

Ostrovskis said.

According to DeFiRate data, leading prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket process about $5.8 billion in weekly notional volume, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 70% of activity and politics and sports remaining the most popular markets.