UK regulator reviews prediction market ban

• The FCA has held talks on possibly easing its 2019 retail prediction market ban.
• UK users are increasingly turning to overseas platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
• The FCA still supports the current ban because of consumer harm concerns.

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has held talks with trading platforms about easing its 2019 ban on retail prediction markets.

The talks come as more UK users turn to overseas platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

The FCA still supports the ban, citing the speculative nature of these contracts and potential consumer harm.

Prediction markets let users bet on yes-or-no outcomes across areas such as economics, sport and weather.

The FCA treats financial and some weather contracts as binary options, which have been banned for UK retail users since 2019.

Bernstein expects global prediction market trading volume to rise from US$51 billion in 2025 to US$240 billion in 2026.

Any UK platform would still need FCA approval for financial contracts, while sports and political markets require a Gambling Commission licence.