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Odds that Donald Trump could acquire Greenland before 2027 have climbed sharply on crypto-based prediction platforms amid rising US-EU tensions.
The contract titled “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” rose to 22% on Polymarket, up from 8% at the start of the year.
More than $14 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the largest active markets on the platform.
Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain, highlighting growing use of crypto markets for geopolitical forecasting.
By contrast, odds on Kalshi, a federally regulated US prediction market, remained broadly stable at 46%.
Traders are also betting on the likelihood of new US tariffs linked to Greenland-related disputes.
Market data shows odds exceeding 30% for fresh tariffs on Denmark, Finland and France starting next month.
Political tensions between the United States and the European Union have intensified as the dispute escalates.
Greenland’s leadership has repeatedly rejected any proposal to transfer control of the territory to the United States.
“We would choose Denmark over the U.S.,”
Jens-Frederik Nielsen said.
EU ambassadors reached a broad agreement to discourage Trump from imposing tariffs while preparing potential countermeasures.
European officials are drafting responses should US trade penalties be enacted.
Member states are considering the Anti-Coercion Instrument, a tool that has never previously been used.
The mechanism could restrict access to public tenders, investment flows, banking activity or trade in services.
Analysts noted that digital services could be targeted, where the United States holds a trade surplus.
Greenland remains a semi-autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.
Industry and geopolitical experts estimate that acquiring Greenland could cost the United States close to $1 trillion over 20 years.
Analysts said the potential acquisition offers limited economic benefit relative to its projected cost.
The growing activity on prediction markets reflects heightened uncertainty around global trade and geopolitics.