Polymarket odds of a United States invasion of Iran this year climbed to 63% on Sunday after President Donald Trump posted fresh comments escalating rhetoric around the conflict.
The increase follows earlier volatility in prediction markets, where odds had previously peaked at 68% on March 29 amid reports of a US troop buildup and discussions around potentially targeting Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub.
“Tuesday will be power plant day, and bridge day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it! Open the fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell,”
Said US President Donald Trump.
Trading activity on Polymarket reached approximately $3.74 million for the invasion contract, highlighting growing speculative interest as geopolitical tensions intensify and timelines for escalation remain unclear.
Market reactions have been mixed, with Bitcoin rising around 2.6% and the S&P 500 gaining 2.91% earlier in the week after Trump suggested a potential withdrawal within weeks, though prices stabilised after his latest remarks.
“I wish Trump would stop threatening Iranian civilian infrastructure. It's a lose-lose for us: backing down hurts his negotiating credibility,”
Said economist Peter Schiff, warning of broader geopolitical and reputational risks.
The conflicting signals from the US administration continue to inject uncertainty into global markets, with analysts noting that risk assets remain highly sensitive to shifting narratives around the duration and scale of the conflict.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $69,017.70.