What happened between Polymarket bettors and the journalist?

Polymarket users allegedly threatened Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian to change his report on an Iranian missile strike. The report affected a $17 million prediction market, creating financial incentives to influence the outcome.

Why did bettors want the report changed?

The market outcome depended on whether a missile strike on Israel was confirmed. Some traders who bet “No” pushed for the report to be altered so they could win their positions.

How large was the Polymarket bet tied to this event?

More than $17 million was wagered on whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10. The high stakes increased pressure around how the event was interpreted.

What kind of threats did Emanuel Fabian receive?

Fabian reported receiving messages, calls and emails, including death threats and personal information about his family. The threats were serious enough for him to involve police.

How did Polymarket respond to the incident?

Polymarket said it banned the accounts involved and reported them to authorities. The platform also stated that harassment and threats violate its terms of service.

What does this incident reveal about prediction markets?

It highlights how prediction markets tied to real-world events can create incentives for manipulation. Participants may attempt to influence news, data or outcomes tied to their bets.

Are regulators concerned about prediction markets like Polymarket?

Yes, lawmakers in the US and elsewhere have raised concerns about insider trading and market manipulation. War- and politics-related contracts are facing increasing scrutiny.

What was the dispute over the missile strike?

The disagreement centred on whether the missile hit Israel or was intercepted. Market rules treated intercepted strikes differently, which affected how the bet would resolve.

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Polymarket bans users after journalist threats

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished Mar 17, 2026, 12:00 AM

Polymarket banned several users and referred them to authorities after an Israeli journalist received death threats linked to a $17 million prediction market on an Iranian missile strike.

The incident centred on a market betting on the date Iran would strike Israel, where traders allegedly attempted to influence reporting to sway the outcome and secure payouts.

The Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian said he was pressured to amend his report on a March 10 missile strike near Beit Shemesh to favour bettors who had wagered against the event occurring.

“As far as I now understand, the emails I received were intended to confirm whether or not a missile had hit Israel on March 10 in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket,”

Said The Times of Israel military correspondent, Emanuel Fabian.

Fabian said he received threatening messages, including warnings of severe harm and detailed references to his family, prompting him to report the matter to police, who have launched an investigation.

Polymarket said:

“It condemns the harassment & threats directed at Emanuel Fabian — or anyone else for that matter,”

Adding that the behaviour violated its terms of service and confirming the accounts involved had been banned and reported to authorities.

The episode has intensified scrutiny of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, with critics and lawmakers warning that contracts tied to geopolitical events may incentivise manipulation, insider trading and unethical attempts to influence real-world outcomes.