What is Polymarket trying to launch in the US?

Polymarket filed to launch parlay-style prediction market contracts in the United States. The products would combine multiple event predictions into a single contract that only pays out if every selected outcome is correct.

How do Polymarket’s parlay contracts work?

The proposed “combinatorial outcome contracts” function similarly to sports betting parlays. If even one prediction in the bundle fails, the contract resolves to zero rather than paying out partially.

Why is the CFTC involved with prediction markets?

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees event contracts and derivatives markets under US commodities law. Prediction market companies argue their products qualify as federally regulated financial contracts rather than gambling products.

Did Polymarket receive formal approval from regulators?

No, Polymarket used the CFTC’s self-certification process, which allows firms to notify regulators they intend to launch products without waiting for direct approval. Regulators can still intervene later if concerns arise.

Why are prediction markets controversial in the US?

State regulators and gambling companies argue sports-related prediction markets resemble sports betting and should fall under state gambling laws. Prediction market firms argue they are federally regulated financial products instead.

What is the SEC doing with prediction market ETFs?

US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins said the agency is seeking public input on how it should approach ETFs linked to prediction markets and event contracts.

Why would companies want prediction market ETFs?

Prediction market ETFs could provide investors exposure to event-based trading markets through traditional brokerage accounts. They may also help legitimise the sector for institutional and retail investors.

Why are regulators cautious about event-contract ETFs?

Regulators are concerned about market manipulation, investor protection and whether prediction markets overlap too closely with gambling activity. The SEC said “novel products raise novel questions” as it evaluates these risks.

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Polymarket expands sports parlays amid SEC review

Written by Liezl GambePublished May 21, 2026, 3:36 AM

Polymarket filed to launch parlay-style prediction market contracts in the United States, expanding its push into sports-related event trading as regulators intensify scrutiny of the sector.

The filing submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission described “combinatorial outcome contracts” that would bundle multiple prediction outcomes together, requiring every selected outcome to settle correctly for the contract to pay out.

Under the proposed structure, contracts would resolve to $1 only if all underlying predictions proved accurate, effectively creating a parlay-style product similar to sports betting combinations.

Because the filing used the CFTC’s self-certification process, Polymarket is not seeking formal approval but notifying regulators that it intends to list the contracts no earlier than May 21.

At the same time, US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins said the agency would seek public input on how it should approach exchange-traded funds linked to prediction markets and event contracts.

Atkins said:

“Novel products raise novel questions”

While acknowledging that several ETF sponsors had delayed launches tied to event-contract markets as regulators assess potential implications.

Prediction markets have faced mounting political and legal pressure in the United States as state regulators and gambling companies argue sports-related contracts resemble gambling products that should fall under state jurisdiction rather than federal commodities oversight.

The dispute has increasingly drawn attention from Congress and the courts, with legal observers expecting the Supreme Court of the United States to eventually weigh in on whether prediction markets should be treated as financial derivatives or sports betting products.