What did Bubblemaps discover about Polymarket military bets?

Bubblemaps said it identified nine connected wallets that collectively earned roughly $2.4 million with a 98% win rate on military-related contracts on Polymarket.

Why are the Polymarket wallets considered suspicious?

The wallets allegedly placed highly accurate bets shortly before major geopolitical events involving Iran, including military strikes and ceasefire announcements. Bubblemaps said the pattern was statistically unusual enough to raise insider trading concerns.

What kinds of events were the wallets betting on?

The accounts reportedly traded contracts tied to US military operations, the reported killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader and the timing of ceasefire agreements. Many of the bets were placed before information became publicly available.

How much money did the wallets make?

Bubblemaps estimated the nine wallets generated approximately $2.4 million in profits across more than 80 bets. Four wallets reportedly earned around $400,000 each from correctly predicting the Feb. 28 US strike on Iran.

What evidence suggests the wallets may have tried to hide activity?

Bubblemaps said the accounts were funded through centralised crypto exchanges and third-party services within a narrow timeframe. The wallets also placed several small losing bets beforehand, which investigators believe may have been designed to reduce suspicion.

Did Bubblemaps prove insider trading occurred?

No. Nicolas Vaiman said the firm cannot conclusively prove insider trading, but argued the trading behavior strongly suggests an “unfair informational advantage.”

Why are prediction markets facing increasing regulatory pressure?

Regulators and lawmakers worry that people with access to sensitive government or military information could exploit prediction markets for profit. Military-related contracts have become especially controversial because of potential national security implications.

What is the DEATH BETS Act?

The DEATH BETS Act is proposed legislation introduced by Adam Schiff that would ban federally regulated prediction markets tied to wars, assassinations, terrorism and individual deaths.

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Bubblemaps flags suspicious Polymarket military bets

Written by Liezl GambePublished May 20, 2026, 3:14 AM

Bubblemaps said it uncovered a cluster of nine wallets that collectively generated roughly $2.4 million with a 98% success rate trading military-related contracts on Polymarket.

According to Bubblemaps, the wallets placed major bets shortly before several geopolitical developments, including the Feb. 28 US strike on Iran, the reported killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the subsequent US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

The analytics firm said the wallets were funded through centralised cryptocurrency exchanges within a narrow timeframe and appeared to make several small losing bets beforehand, potentially to avoid attracting attention.

Four of the wallets reportedly earned about $400,000 each by correctly predicting the US military strike against Iran before the event became public.

“We cannot say with certainty that this was an attempt to hide, but it is suspicious that funds were routed through CEXs and third-party services before funding new Polymarket accounts,”

Said Nicolas Vaiman.

The findings renewed concerns around potential insider trading and informational advantages inside decentralised prediction markets, including platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

US lawmakers have already proposed tighter regulation for war-related prediction contracts, including the DEATH BETS Act introduced by Adam Schiff, which seeks to prohibit federally regulated markets tied to wars, assassinations, terrorism and individual deaths.

Separately, Gavin Newsom signed an executive order earlier this year restricting public officials from trading on prediction markets connected to political or economic events they may influence.