What is PlanB's updated Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) price target and when does he expect it to be reached?

PlanB has revised his Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) price projection for the current halving cycle to a range of US$250,000 to US$1 million, with an average target of approximately US$500,000. He projects the primary surge is most likely to materialise between 2026 and 2028, rather than having already peaked. This is a potential scenario, not guaranteed — it is one analyst's model-based forecast.

What is the Stock-to-Flow model and why does PlanB use it to forecast Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) price?

The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model measures an asset's scarcity by comparing its total existing supply (stock) to the annual rate of new supply created (flow). For Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), halving events — which cut the rate of new BTC issuance in half every four years — are the primary supply shock the model captures. PlanB argues that reduced new supply historically correlates with significant Bitcoin price increases in the 12–24 months following each halving.

Where are we in the current Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) halving cycle and what does that mean for timing?

The current halving cycle began in April 2024. At the time of PlanB's analysis, slightly more than half the cycle had elapsed, leaving approximately 639 days — roughly two years — until the cycle ends. PlanB's historical analysis suggests the largest price moves in previous cycles arrived in the later stages, implying the window he identifies for a significant Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) surge is roughly 2026 to 2028.

What is Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) realised price and why does the US$53,000 level matter?

Bitcoin's realised price is the average acquisition cost of all BTC currently in circulation — essentially the average price at which every coin was last moved on-chain. It currently stands at approximately US$53,000. In past bear markets, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) price has frequently dipped below this level before rebounding. PlanB notes this as a potential downside scenario — not a guaranteed outcome — that investors should be psychologically prepared for.

Could Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) hit new local lows before reaching PlanB's US$500,000 target?

Yes, PlanB explicitly acknowledges this risk. He notes that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has repeatedly experienced new local lows during broader bull cycles before ultimately recovering and making new highs. The realised price of approximately US$53,000 represents a historically significant downside level. Investors should understand that a near-term drop — potentially below current prices — does not necessarily invalidate the longer-term cycle thesis PlanB is describing.

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PlanB sees Bitcoin at US$500K on Stock-to-Flow model

Written by Liezl GambePublished Jul 16, 2026, 10:34 AM

On-chain analyst PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, has revised his Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) price projection for the current halving cycle to a range of US$250,000 to US$1 million, with an average target of approximately US$500,000 before the cycle concludes.
The Stock-to-Flow model links Bitcoin's value to its programmed scarcity by comparing total supply to the annual rate of new supply creation, with halving events historically serving as the primary driver of the price increases the model projects.
Slightly more than half of the current halving cycle had elapsed since the April 2024 halving at the time of the analysis, leaving approximately 639 days, or nearly two years, until the cycle ends.

PlanB argues that despite the current market cooldown, historical data from previous cycles shows that the most significant upward price movements typically occur in the later stages of each four-year halving period.

The analyst projects that Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) primary surge toward the Stock-to-Flow model's upper price targets is most likely to materialise between 2026 and 2028, rather than having already peaked at recent highs.

PlanB acknowledges meaningful downside risks, noting that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could experience new local lows before a strong rebound, as has occurred repeatedly in previous bear market phases within broader bull cycles.

In past bear markets, Bitcoin's price has frequently declined below its realised price — the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin currently in circulation — which currently stands at approximately US$53,000.

PlanB cautions that price retracements during the cycle should not be interpreted as the end of the broader bull market, but rather as conditions that have historically created the foundation for renewed upward momentum.

The analyst notes that the transition from market pessimism to optimism typically occurs when the majority of participants least expect it, with rapid moves toward new highs historically catching short sellers and sceptics off guard.

"Patience,"

PlanB said, reiterating his key message for investors navigating current volatility, adding that Bitcoin's long-term trend remains intact and that the period of greatest supply constraint lies ahead.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $64,112.54.

PlanB sees Bitcoin at US$500K on Stock-to-Flow model

Frequently asked questions

PlanB sees Bitcoin at US$500K on Stock-to-Flow model

Frequently asked questions