Why did Indonesia block Polymarket?

Indonesia blocked Polymarket after users placed bets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before his term ends. Authorities said the platform violated Indonesian anti-gambling laws.

How much activity did the Prabowo prediction market generate?

One of the political betting markets reportedly generated more than $46,000 in trading volume. Traders assigned about an 18% chance that Prabowo would leave office before the end of 2026.

Why does Indonesia consider prediction markets gambling?

Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs said platforms like Polymarket involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes. Regulators therefore classified the service as online gambling rather than a financial forecasting tool.

Why are prediction markets becoming controversial globally?

Prediction markets sit in a legal grey area between finance, gambling and data forecasting. Regulators increasingly worry about market manipulation, political influence, insider trading and whether such platforms should operate under gambling laws.

Is Polymarket legal in every country?

No. Polymarket already faces regulatory scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions. Some governments treat prediction markets as speculative financial products, while others classify them as gambling platforms.

Why are governments concerned about political prediction markets?

Political betting markets can become sensitive because they involve elections, leadership stability and public governance. Authorities may fear that speculative betting could influence political narratives or create reputational risks around public institutions.

How does Kalshi compare with Polymarket?

Kalshi operates under a more regulated structure in the United States, while Polymarket relies heavily on crypto-based infrastructure. Both platforms, however, face growing scrutiny over political and event-based contracts.

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Indonesia blocks Polymarket over political betting

Q: What political bets triggered the Indonesian ban?

Polymarket hosted prediction markets asking whether Prabowo would leave office before dates including May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31, 2026. His presidential term officially runs until October 2029.

Written by Heidi Cuthbert Published May. 26 2026Last Updated May. 26 2026

Indonesia blocked access to Polymarket after users placed wagers on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs said the platform functioned as an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market” and violated the country’s gambling laws.

“The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” ministry official Alexander Sabar said in a statement announcing the block.

The regulatory action followed the launch of prediction markets allowing users to bet on whether Prabowo would leave office before dates including May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31, 2026, despite his presidential term officially running until October 2029.

One of the markets reportedly generated more than $46,000 in trading volume, with traders assigning an 18% probability that Prabowo would leave office before the end of 2026.

The ministry said the platform posed risks to younger internet users and broader digital safety, while framing prediction markets as speculative betting services rather than legitimate forecasting tools.

The move adds Indonesia to a growing list of jurisdictions increasing scrutiny on prediction market operators including Kalshi, as regulators debate whether such platforms should be treated as financial forecasting systems or online gambling products.