Indonesia blocks Polymarket over political betting

Indonesia blocked access to Polymarket after users placed wagers on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs said the platform functioned as an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market” and violated the country’s gambling laws.

“The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” ministry official Alexander Sabar said in a statement announcing the block.

The regulatory action followed the launch of prediction markets allowing users to bet on whether Prabowo would leave office before dates including May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31, 2026, despite his presidential term officially running until October 2029.

One of the markets reportedly generated more than $46,000 in trading volume, with traders assigning an 18% probability that Prabowo would leave office before the end of 2026.

The ministry said the platform posed risks to younger internet users and broader digital safety, while framing prediction markets as speculative betting services rather than legitimate forecasting tools.

The move adds Indonesia to a growing list of jurisdictions increasing scrutiny on prediction market operators including Kalshi, as regulators debate whether such platforms should be treated as financial forecasting systems or online gambling products.