Grayscale said Bitcoin likely found its bear-market bottom between $65,000 and $70,000 during February’s sell-off, challenging broader expectations of a later low.
The firm pointed to on-chain realised price data showing recent buyers are now near breakeven around $74,000 after Bitcoin rebounded more than 20% from its February low near $63,000.
“If Bitcoin’s price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market,”
Said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale.
Grayscale said the recovery toward the realised price suggests capitulation has already occurred, with the market potentially transitioning into an early-stage bull cycle.
However, Benjamin Cowen and CryptoQuant expect a later bottom in 2026, with forecasts ranging from mid-year to as late as October depending on market conditions.
Analyst Joao Wedson also sees a late-2026 trough, aligning with a more cautious outlook that Bitcoin could still face another leg down before recovery.
The divergence in views leaves traders weighing whether February marked a durable floor or if further downside remains before a sustained uptrend begins.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $77,864.59.