Fed study links crypto demand to beliefs

• A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland study found crypto investors hold different views on future returns.
• Crypto owners expected an average 22% return, compared with 7% among non-owners.
• Showing people Bitcoin’s past returns increased both planned allocations and later crypto purchases.

A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland study found beliefs about crypto returns help explain who owns cryptocurrency.

Crypto owners expected an average 22% return over the next year, compared with 7% among non-owners.

The researchers also found that expected returns strongly influenced crypto ownership across surveyed households.

A one-percentage-point increase in expected returns was linked to a 0.8-percentage-point rise in ownership probability.

The study used surveys of up to 25,000 US households per wave and included a randomised information experiment.

In the 2025 experiment, people shown Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO:BTC) previous 12-month return raised their planned crypto allocation by about two percentage points.

Actual crypto purchases also rose by about 2.5 percentage points, while the researchers said different investor beliefs may help explain crypto’s volatility.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $77,744.66.