CoinShares downplays near-term quantum threat to Bitcoin

Digital asset manager CoinShares said only a small fraction of bitcoin is realistically exposed to quantum computing risks, estimating just $719 million worth could be vulnerable.

CoinShares bitcoin research lead Christopher Bendiksen said around 10,230 BTC sit in wallet addresses with publicly visible keys that could, in theory, be targeted by future quantum attacks.

“That amount is closer to the size of a routine market trade than a systemic shock,”

Bendiksen said, adding that most potentially exposed bitcoin is concentrated in a limited number of large wallets.

He noted that roughly 1.62 million BTC held in wallets with balances under 100 BTC would be effectively impractical to attack, even under highly optimistic assumptions about quantum progress.

Bendiksen said quantum algorithms such as Shor’s and Grover’s cannot alter bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap or bypass proof-of-work, limiting their impact on the core network.

The findings contrast with warnings from some market participants who see quantum computing as a long-term existential risk and argue for earlier upgrades to quantum-resistant cryptography.

Others, including Michael Saylor and Adam Back, have dismissed quantum threats as decades away and unlikely to disrupt bitcoin in the foreseeable future.