Bitcoin’s break from US stocks may prove temporary

• Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has underperformed the US stock market so far in 2026, even as equities have reached successive record highs, prompting debate among asset managers over whether the divergence will persist.
• Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage attributed the gap to a shift in capital allocation towards artificial intelligence infrastructure, initial public offerings, and interest rate trading rather than any deterioration in the cryptocurrency sector's underlying fundamentals.
• Kerbage noted that stablecoin trading volume in the first half of 2026 has already surpassed the full-year 2025 level, tokenised real-world assets have grown by more than 60% year-to-date, and crypto network transaction activity has reached an all-time high.

"Current market capital is flowing more into themes like AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading rather than digital assets,"

Kerbage said.

The divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has reached a historic high, according to Kerbage's assessment.

Jim Ferraioli, Head of Digital Assets Research at Charles Schwab, stated that Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) current price trajectory remains consistent with historical patterns observed following previous halving events.

Ferraioli explained that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) typically requires more than a year following a halving event to recover above the production cost of inefficient miners, which currently stands at approximately US$95,000.

The market's average cost basis for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) sits at roughly US$80,000, meaning investors holding positions at a loss may continue to create selling pressure during any price recovery.

Ferraioli cautioned that while the four-year halving cycle is not a guaranteed rule, it has historically had a significant influence on investor behaviour across each market cycle.

Both Hashdex and Charles Schwab indicated that as the Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) market matures, the magnitude of volatility in future cycles may gradually moderate compared with previous cycles.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $63,065.47.