Why has Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) underperformed US stocks in 2026 despite equities hitting record highs?

Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage attributes the gap to capital rotating into AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading rather than digital assets. This is a capital allocation shift, not a sign that crypto fundamentals are weakening. On-chain metrics including stablecoin volume, tokenised real-world assets, and network activity are all at or near record levels despite the price underperformance.

What on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) fundamentals are still strong despite price weakness?

According to Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage, stablecoin trading volume in H1 2026 has already exceeded the full-year 2025 level, tokenised real-world assets have grown over 60% year-to-date, and crypto network transaction activity has hit an all-time high. The divergence between these strong on-chain fundamentals and Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) market valuation has reached a historic high.

What does the Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) halving cycle have to do with its current price performance?

Charles Schwab's Head of Digital Assets Research Jim Ferraioli says Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) current trajectory is consistent with historical post-halving patterns. Bitcoin typically takes more than a year after a halving event to recover above the production cost of inefficient miners — currently around US$95,000 — suggesting the current period of underperformance fits the historical playbook rather than representing an anomaly.

What is Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) average market cost basis and why does it create selling pressure?

The market's average cost basis for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) sits at approximately US$80,000, meaning a significant portion of holders are currently at or near breakeven. As price recovers, investors holding losing positions tend to sell to exit, creating overhead supply pressure. This dynamic, noted by Charles Schwab's Ferraioli, can slow or cap recovery rallies until that seller pool is exhausted.

What is the inefficient miner production cost for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) and why does it matter?

The production cost for inefficient Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) miners currently stands at approximately US$95,000. This level acts as a key overhead resistance because miners operating above their cost of production have an incentive to sell to cover expenses. Until Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) sustainably reclaims US$95,000, miner selling can continue to cap upward price momentum during recovery phases.

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Bitcoin’s break from US stocks may prove temporary

Written by Liezl GambePublished Jul 5, 2026, 4:05 AM

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has underperformed the US stock market so far in 2026, even as equities have reached successive record highs, prompting debate among asset managers over whether the divergence will persist.
Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage attributed the gap to a shift in capital allocation towards artificial intelligence infrastructure, initial public offerings, and interest rate trading rather than any deterioration in the cryptocurrency sector's underlying fundamentals.
Kerbage noted that stablecoin trading volume in the first half of 2026 has already surpassed the full-year 2025 level, tokenised real-world assets have grown by more than 60% year-to-date, and crypto network transaction activity has reached an all-time high.

"Current market capital is flowing more into themes like AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading rather than digital assets,"

Kerbage said.

The divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has reached a historic high, according to Kerbage's assessment.

Jim Ferraioli, Head of Digital Assets Research at Charles Schwab, stated that Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) current price trajectory remains consistent with historical patterns observed following previous halving events.

Ferraioli explained that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) typically requires more than a year following a halving event to recover above the production cost of inefficient miners, which currently stands at approximately US$95,000.

The market's average cost basis for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) sits at roughly US$80,000, meaning investors holding positions at a loss may continue to create selling pressure during any price recovery.

Ferraioli cautioned that while the four-year halving cycle is not a guaranteed rule, it has historically had a significant influence on investor behaviour across each market cycle.

Both Hashdex and Charles Schwab indicated that as the Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) market matures, the magnitude of volatility in future cycles may gradually moderate compared with previous cycles.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $63,065.47.

Bitcoin’s break from US stocks may prove temporary

Frequently asked questions

Bitcoin’s break from US stocks may prove temporary

Frequently asked questions