Why does NYDIG say Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks is overstated?

NYDIG argues that the recent price movements between Bitcoin and US software stocks are mainly driven by shared macroeconomic conditions rather than a structural link between the two assets. According to NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro, both markets are reacting to the same liquidity environment. This makes the correlation appear stronger than it actually is.

Did Bitcoin recently move in tandem with tech stocks?

Yes, Bitcoin recently rallied alongside US software equities, prompting some analysts to suggest it behaves like a tech-sector proxy. However, Cipolaro said the parallel movement likely reflects macro factors such as interest rates and liquidity conditions. In other words, both assets responded to the same economic backdrop rather than influencing each other directly.

What macroeconomic factors are influencing both Bitcoin and tech stocks?

Cipolaro pointed to the current macro regime affecting long-duration, liquidity-sensitive assets. These include changes in interest rates, monetary policy expectations, and global liquidity conditions. When these macro forces shift, both crypto assets and technology stocks can move in similar directions.

How much of Bitcoin’s price movement is explained by the stock market?

According to NYDIG’s analysis, only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price movements can be explained by correlations with traditional stock indices. This means roughly 75% of Bitcoin’s price action is driven by other factors. These include crypto-specific dynamics such as adoption, regulation, and network activity.

Which stock indices show correlation with Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s correlation has recently increased with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. However, the rise in correlation is not limited to software stocks. This suggests the movement reflects broader market conditions rather than a direct connection to the technology sector.

Why do some investors think Bitcoin behaves like a tech stock?

Because Bitcoin often reacts to global liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite. When markets shift toward risk assets, both tech stocks and crypto can rise together. This overlapping behaviour sometimes leads investors to treat Bitcoin like another high-growth technology asset.

Why hasn’t Bitcoin consistently acted like “digital gold”?

Despite being labelled “digital gold,” Bitcoin has not always behaved like a traditional safe-haven asset. Cipolaro said investors currently treat it more like a risk asset within a broader portfolio. This means its price may rise or fall alongside other speculative investments during macro shifts.

What makes Bitcoin structurally different from equities?

Bitcoin has unique economic drivers such as its decentralised network structure, supply schedule, and blockchain activity. Factors like adoption rates, regulatory developments, and mining dynamics influence its value. These elements make Bitcoin fundamentally different from corporate equity markets.

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NYDIG says Bitcoin tech stock link overstated

Written by Jon CuthbertPublished Mar 9, 2026, 12:00 AM

Bitcoin’s recent price movement alongside US software stocks likely reflects shared exposure to macroeconomic conditions rather than a structural convergence with the technology sector, according to NYDIG research.

NYDIG head of research Greg Cipolaro said the recent rally in both Bitcoin and software equities led some observers to claim the cryptocurrency had become a proxy for the sector.

However, Cipolaro said the correlation likely reflects the behaviour of long-duration risk assets responding to liquidity conditions rather than any fundamental link between Bitcoin and tech stocks.

“While the visual fit of their indexed price is compelling, the conclusion that Bitcoin and software equities have structurally converged is overstated,”

Said NYDIG head of research, Greg Cipolaro.

The analyst noted that although Bitcoin’s correlation with software stocks has risen in recent months, its correlation with broader indices including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has also increased.

Cipolaro added that only around a quarter of Bitcoin’s price movement can be explained by stock market correlations, with the majority driven by factors outside traditional equity markets.

He said Bitcoin’s unique network activity, adoption trends and regulatory developments support its role as a portfolio diversifier despite temporary cross-asset correlations.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $67,087.46.