Why is Bitcoin (CRYPTO) still below a key recovery level after its rebound?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO) remains below Glassnode’s True Market Mean of US$77,200 despite recovering from its June selloff. Glassnode said the asset was trading near US$65,600 on June 17, leaving it about 15% below the level historically associated with bull market conditions.

What does the True Market Mean mean for Bitcoin (CRYPTO)?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO) True Market Mean represents the average acquisition price of actively traded coins. Glassnode estimates the metric at US$77,200 and said it has historically acted as a dividing line between bull and bear market regimes.

How is Bitcoin (CRYPTO) affecting recent buyers?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO) recent buyers remain in a loss position because the estimated short-term holder cost basis is about US$72,600. Glassnode said Short-Term Holder MVRV improved from 0.81 to 0.90 but remains below the 1.0 break-even threshold, leaving newer holders with unrealised losses of roughly 10%.

What does Bitcoin (CRYPTO) need to do to support a stronger recovery?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO) would need to reclaim the US$77,200 True Market Mean, according to Glassnode. The firm also said Short-Term Holder MVRV would need to rise above 1.0 and Realised Cap growth would need to turn positive over a 90-day period.

What does Glassnode’s capital flow data mean for Bitcoin (CRYPTO)?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO) capital flows have improved but remain negative based on Glassnode’s data. Realised Cap fell 1.45% over the past 90 days to US$1.07 trillion, although the seven-day change improved to negative 0.18%, indicating outflows have slowed.

Cryptocurrency

Image for illustrative purposes only. Not a real photo.

Bitcoin stays 15% below key recovery level

Written by Isaac FrancisPublished Jun 19, 2026, 2:51 AM

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) remains about 15% below Glassnode’s True Market Mean despite recovering from a sharp June selloff.
Recent Bitcoin buyers are still carrying unrealised losses of around 10%, while capital flows remain negative.
Glassnode said a stronger recovery would require Bitcoin to reclaim US$77,200, recent buyers to return to profit, and capital inflows to turn positive.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has rebounded from a June selloff but remains about 15% below Glassnode’s True Market Mean of US$77,200, a key on-chain level used to distinguish between bull and bear market conditions.

The recovery followed a decline that pushed Bitcoin to its lowest levels in months amid geopolitical tensions and broader weakness across risk assets, with the cryptocurrency trading near US$65,600 as of June 17.

“Currently at $77.2k, it sits roughly 15% above spot near $65.6k, placing the market firmly in discount territory,” said on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

Glassnode said recent buyers remain under pressure, with Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realised Value improving from 0.81 to 0.90 but remaining below the 1.0 break-even level, while the group’s estimated cost basis of US$72,600 leaves newer holders with unrealised losses of about 10%.

The firm said a sustained recovery would require Bitcoin to reclaim the True Market Mean, push Short-Term Holder MVRV above 1.0, and return Realised Cap growth to positive territory over a 90-day period, and following the report the Bitcoin price was unchanged near US$65,600.

Glassnode reported that profitability metrics remained weak, with the 30-day Realised Profit/Loss Ratio at 0.53, indicating realised losses continued to exceed realised gains across the market.

The firm also noted that Binance order book data showed buy-side liquidity exceeding resting sell orders by the widest margin in months after Bitcoin approached US$60,000, suggesting stronger demand emerged during the recent period of market weakness.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $62,907.05.

Bitcoin stays 15% below key recovery level

Frequently asked questions

Assets related to this article