Bitcoin ‘sell in May’ fears split analysts

Crypto analysts are divided over whether Bitcoin could face another major “sell in May” decline in 2026 as traders compare current market conditions with previous mid-term election year bear cycles.

Bitcoin fell from nearly $10,000 to around $7,000 in May 2018 and dropped almost 30% in May 2022 before sliding further to $20,000 the following month, raising concerns that a similar pattern could emerge again this year.

“The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history, nobody wants to hear this, but the pattern is perfect, mid-term election years, Bitcoin dumps, every time,”

Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar said on Sunday.

Enkelaar warned Bitcoin could potentially collapse to $33,000 despite progress on the CLARITY Act, improving sentiment from the Trump administration and expectations surrounding possible US-China trade agreements.

Joao Wedson said there was a higher probability of a fresh capitulation phase if Bitcoin remained below $78,000, while Bitcoin traded near $76,900 at the time of writing after declining 5.6% over the previous seven days.

Jeff Ko argued the historical drawdowns were driven by macroeconomic shocks including the Mt. Gox collapse, China’s ICO crackdown, Federal Reserve tightening and the Terra and FTX failures rather than the calendar itself.

Ko said spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury adoption and progress on the CLARITY Act had significantly broadened the institutional buyer base, adding that a decline into the high-$50,000 or mid-$60,000 range was possible during a macro shock but a collapse to $33,000 would likely require a systemic market failure.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $76,964.05.