Bitcoin rally faces May bearish cycle risk

Bitcoin rose about 11% in April, marking its strongest monthly performance in a year, but analysts are warning that May could trigger a renewed downturn.

The rally follows five consecutive losing months, with recent gains now facing scrutiny as historical midterm election cycles point to potential May tops and sharp declines.

“Sell in May and go away. Only in mid-term years, every time,”

Said analyst Merlijn The Trader, citing past drops of over 60% following similar setups in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

On-chain data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin has been rejected at key resistance levels, including the True Market Mean and short-term holder cost basis.

Rising realised profits, reaching around $4 million per hour, indicate investors are selling into strength, limiting further upside momentum.

Analysts including Benjamin Cowen suggest a potential bear-market bottom may not occur until late 2026, though an earlier bottom remains possible if a sharp capitulation event occurs.

Despite bearish signals, early signs of institutional re-engagement and historical post-midterm gains suggest Bitcoin could recover once near-term weakness subsides.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $76,541.00.