1. Why did Bitcoin (BTC) trade near $68,783 despite US stock market losses?

Bitcoin traded around $68,783 after recovering from an intraday low of $66,300, even as the Nasdaq fell 1% and the Dow dropped 369 points. The move suggests Bitcoin was relatively resilient during broader equity weakness. Investors appeared to focus more on macro rate expectations and oil prices than equity sentiment alone.

2. How did Bitcoin perform intraday during the US-Iran escalation?

Bitcoin fell to about $66,300 earlier in the session before rebounding nearly $2,000 to trade near $68,783. Over 24 hours, it was roughly flat, but it outperformed major US indexes during the session. The rebound indicates buyers stepped in quickly at lower levels.

3. What does Brent crude above $80 mean for Bitcoin?

Brent crude moving above $80 per barrel raises inflation concerns because higher energy prices can push up costs across the economy. If inflation stays elevated, the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut rates soon. For Bitcoin, fewer rate cuts can reduce liquidity support, which is typically a headwind for risk assets.

4. What are the current odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut?

CME Group FedWatch data shows just a 2.6% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting. That means markets are pricing in a high likelihood of rates staying unchanged. Higher-for-longer rates can weigh on speculative assets, including crypto.

5. Why did gold and silver fall during geopolitical tension?

Gold dropped 3.6% to around $5,119 per ounce and silver fell 6.2% to roughly $83 per ounce. Traditionally, precious metals act as safe havens during conflict. In this case, digital assets held up better, which may signal shifting investor behaviour, though that trend is not guaranteed to persist.

6. What did President Donald Trump say about the conflict?

President Donald Trump said “Operation Epic Fury” could last four to five weeks and confirmed further strikes on Iranian leadership. That suggests the conflict may be prolonged. Prolonged military action increases macro uncertainty and can drive volatility in crypto and equities.

7. Is Bitcoin acting like a safe haven in this situation?

Bitcoin’s relative strength compared with stocks and gold suggests some defensive characteristics in this episode. However, Bitcoin has historically been volatile and often trades like a high-risk asset. One period of resilience does not confirm a permanent shift in behaviour.

8. How might this affect Bitcoin’s short-term price?

Short term, Bitcoin’s price will likely be sensitive to oil prices, Fed expectations and geopolitical headlines. If oil remains above $80 and rate cut odds stay near zero, upside may be limited. Conversely, easing tensions or softer inflation signals could support further gains.

Cryptocurrency

Image for illustrative purposes only. Not a real photo.

Bitcoin firms as Fed cut odds fade

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished Mar 4, 2026, 12:00 AM

Bitcoin traded around $68,783 on Tuesday, recovering from an intraday low of $66,300 as investors reassessed interest rate expectations against a backdrop of intensifying US-Iran conflict.

The rebound left bitcoin roughly flat over 24 hours but up nearly $2,000 since the US equity open, even as the Nasdaq Composite fell 1%, the S&P 500 edged lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 369 points.

Unlike previous geopolitical shocks, precious metals failed to attract sustained safe-haven flows, with gold sliding 3.6% to about $5,119 per ounce and silver dropping 6.2% to roughly $83 per ounce.

US President Donald Trump said:

“Operation Epic Fury could extend four to five weeks,”

And added that:

“There was another hit today on the new leadership,”

Signalling continued military escalation.

On the macro front, Brent crude moved above $80 per barrel, prompting Jake Ostrovskis of Wintermute to warn that sustained energy strength could harden a re-inflation narrative and effectively rule out a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.

Data from CME Group FedWatch shows traders pricing just a 2.6% probability of a quarter-point reduction at the next meeting, underscoring how geopolitical risk and oil prices are now shaping crypto’s short-term macro backdrop.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $68,518.00.