Analysts are divided on bitcoin’s outlook after economist Timothy Peterson highlighted that 50% of the asset’s past 24 months delivered positive returns, a pattern he says suggests higher prices by late December.
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,”
Peterson wrote on X, referencing a rolling 24-month metric he uses to identify potential inflection points.
Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July and September this year while six other months ended lower, according to CoinGlass, underscoring the mixed performance behind the statistic.
The forecast comes with bitcoin trading around $68,000, roughly 25% below its level at the start of the year, reflecting ongoing volatility and uneven momentum.
MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said:
“I would expect next week to be green for BTC,”
Pointing to what he described as a potential reversal after a series of red monthly candles.
Others remain cautious, with veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stating that bitcoin’s “real bottom will not occur until October 2026,” highlighting the lack of consensus among market participants.
Broader sentiment remains subdued, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registering an “Extreme Fear” reading of 9, although analytics firm Santiment said the decline in bold price calls on social media may indicate positioning is shifting back toward neutral.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $67,182.23.