Why does Gareth Soloway think Bitcoin could drop to $50,000?

Gareth Soloway says Bitcoin is forming a “bear flag” pattern near $85,000, which typically signals further downside in technical analysis. If Bitcoin fails to break above $85,000 resistance, he sees a potential 38% drop toward $50,000.

What is a bear flag and why does it matter for Bitcoin traders?

A bear flag is a chart pattern that forms after a sharp drop, followed by sideways consolidation before another decline. Traders watch it closely because it often signals continuation of a downtrend if resistance levels are not broken.

What price level is critical for Bitcoin right now?

The key level is $85,000, which Soloway identifies as resistance. A break above that could invalidate the bearish setup, while failure to break it keeps the $50,000 downside scenario in play.

How might this outlook affect Bitcoin in the short term?

In the short term, Bitcoin could remain range-bound between $80,000 and $85,000. If selling pressure increases, traders may position for a breakdown, which could accelerate downside momentum.

What is driving weaker sentiment in crypto markets?

Soloway points to concerns around token launches, including perceived “rug-pull” risks, and a shift of capital toward AI and semiconductor stocks. This reduces demand for crypto assets like Bitcoin.

How does the broader stock market tie into Bitcoin’s outlook?

Soloway sees similarities between today’s stock market and the dot-com bubble, with a few large-cap stocks driving gains. If equities correct, Bitcoin could follow due to its increasing correlation with risk assets.

Why is Soloway short the S&P 500?

He believes the market is showing late-stage bull market behaviour, with divergence between stock prices and bond yields. This suggests underlying weakness and potential for a broader correction.

What role does AI spending play in the current market environment?

Massive AI investment—around $700 billion annually from companies like Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft—is supporting economic growth. Soloway believes this delays a recession until around 2027.

Cryptocurrency

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Soloway warns Bitcoin could drop to $50K

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM

Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 from current levels near $85,000 as a bearish technical pattern forms, according to Gareth Soloway.

Soloway said bitcoin is forming a bear flag, a chart pattern that typically signals further downside, implying a potential 38% decline if resistance at $85,000 fails to break.

“Unless bitcoin clears $85,000, his next downside target is $50,000,”

Soloway said in an interview with David Lin.

The strategist added that weakening crypto sentiment, including concerns over token launches and shifting investor focus toward artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks, is weighing on demand.

He also highlighted broader market risks, noting similarities between current equity conditions and the dot-com bubble, with a handful of large-cap stocks driving index gains.

Soloway remains short the S&P 500, warning that divergence between equity markets and bond yields could signal a broader correction ahead. Following the outlook bitcoin was unchanged near $85,000.

He pointed to $700 billion in annual AI spending by firms such as Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft as delaying recession risks until 2027.

Natural gas remains his preferred near-term trade, with a breakout above $2.88 potentially triggering capital rotation from oil as energy demand rises.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $78,555.93.