Why does Bernstein expect prediction market acquisitions to increase?

Bernstein expects more acquisitions because prediction market platforms are increasingly building complete trading ecosystems that include brokerage, exchange and clearing services. The firm said buying existing businesses may be faster than developing licences, infrastructure and customer networks internally.

What companies are expanding their prediction market businesses?

Coinbase, Robinhood, DraftKings and Cboe Global Markets have recently expanded their prediction market offerings. Their strategies include launching proprietary trading platforms, acquiring infrastructure providers and introducing new event-based contracts.

How is Coinbase expanding its prediction market strategy?

Coinbase expanded its prediction market business by acquiring The Clearing Company and launching its own event contracts. Bernstein said the move gives Coinbase greater control over execution, clearing and trading infrastructure while reducing reliance on third-party providers.

What regulatory challenges could slow prediction market consolidation?

Bernstein said regulatory uncertainty could delay acquisitions because federal and state authorities disagree on how prediction markets should be regulated. The firm noted ongoing disputes involving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, several US states and Kalshi over whether sports event contracts are financial derivatives or gambling products.

How is Cboe Global Markets entering prediction markets?

Cboe Global Markets recently launched Cboe Predicts, offering binary option contracts linked to the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP). The company said the products operate under the existing US regulatory framework for listed security options, allowing traders to take yes-or-no positions on market outcomes.

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Bernstein sees prediction market acquisition wave

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished Jun 30, 2026, 1:35 AM

Bernstein said prediction markets are entering a consolidation phase as trading platforms build or acquire their own infrastructure.
Companies including Coinbase, Robinhood , DraftKings and Cboe Global Markets are expanding in-house prediction market services.
Bernstein said regulatory disputes between federal and state authorities could slow acquisitions despite strong commercial incentives.

Bernstein said prediction market operators are moving towards acquisitions and vertical integration as platforms combine brokerage, exchange and clearing services instead of relying on third-party providers.

The research firm said consumer platforms are increasingly bringing the entire prediction market trading process in-house, with companies from the crypto, financial trading and sports betting sectors now competing in the same market.

Recent developments include Robinhood routing FIFA World Cup prediction contracts through Rothera, DraftKings launching DKeX, and Coinbase acquiring The Clearing Company to support its own event contracts.

Bernstein said owning the full trading stack allows platforms to retain more transaction revenue, making acquisitions a faster way to obtain licences, infrastructure and new customers than building those capabilities internally.

The report also highlighted Cboe Global Markets launching Cboe Predicts and said Meta Platforms is reportedly developing a points-based prediction market application called Arena, while there was no immediate market reaction following the report.

Bernstein cautioned that acquisitions could face regulatory and antitrust challenges as policymakers continue debating whether sports event contracts should be regulated as financial derivatives or gambling products.

The firm said ongoing disputes between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and several US states, including legal challenges by Kalshi, may delay larger transactions until courts clarify the boundaries between federal derivatives oversight and state gambling regulation.