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Former BitMEX chief Arthur Hayes said he is increasing risk exposure ahead of a potential US dollar liquidity rebound in 2026.
Hayes argued that Bitcoin’s weak performance in 2025 reflected tightening dollar credit conditions rather than failing crypto narratives.
In his essay 'Frowny Cloud', Hayes said Bitcoin behaved as expected while gold and US tech stocks rose for separate structural reasons.
He said gold demand has been driven by sovereign buyers seeking protection from US Treasury exposure risks.
“If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero,”
Arthur Hayes said, arguing that central banks are price-insensitive gold buyers.
Hayes said the Nasdaq’s resilience stemmed from US and Chinese industrial policy support for artificial intelligence.
He said Bitcoin and US equities historically rise when dollar liquidity expands, calling the recent divergence temporary.
Hayes said his 2026 outlook depends on renewed dollar credit creation through Federal Reserve balance sheet growth.
He pointed to Reserve Management Purchases, bank lending into strategic industries and policy-driven mortgage demand as key drivers.