What were the key findings from the 2025 ABS school enrolment data?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that total school enrolments hit a record high of 4,160,918 students in 2025. While the total student population grew by 0.7%, the independent school sector was the primary driver of this increase, growing by 3.4%.

How has the Australian educational landscape shifted over the last decade?

There has been a significant long-term shift toward private education, with independent school enrolments rising by 31% (168,448 students) between 2016 and 2025. During this same ten-year period, government school enrolments grew by only 5%.

What does the 2025 data reveal about student retention rates in Australia?

The national retention rate for students staying in school from the start of high school through to Year 12 rose to 81.3% in 2025. Secondary school enrolments specifically grew by 1.9%, or 35,925 students, compared to 2024.

How did Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander student enrolments change in 2025?

Enrolments for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students rose by 3.2% to a total of 283,611, representing 6.8% of all Australian school students. This growth outpaced the national average enrolment increase of 0.7%.

What is the trend for Indigenous student Year 12 completion?

The proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students staying in school from Year 10 to Year 12 jumped to 59.7% in 2025. This increase of 2.7 percentage points is more than double the growth rate recorded in the previous year.

Why should retail investors monitor the growth of independent school enrolments?

The 3.4% annual growth in independent schools, compared to a decline in government school enrolments, signals a robust "user" migration toward private providers.

What is the outlook for primary versus secondary school volumes?

The 2025 data shows a divergence: primary school enrolments fell by 0.3% (7,013 students), while secondary enrolments rose by 1.9%. This suggests a "bulge" in the older student demographic that will continue to flow through to higher education and vocational training over the next 2–3 years.

What are the key risks to the current growth narrative in Australian education?

While independent schools are currently the "engine of growth," the slight 0.2% decline in government school enrolments may signal future capacity or affordability pressures. Investors should watch for any regulatory changes or cost-of-living shifts that could hamper the ability of families to maintain private tuition payments.

Economy

Australian private schools lead enrolment surge

Written by Heidi Cuthbert Published Mar. 5 2026

New data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveals that total school enrolments reached a record high of 4,160,918 in 2025.

While the overall student population grew by 0.7%, the independent sector remained the primary engine of growth, rising by 3.4% over the past year.

The outpaced Catholic schools, which grew by 1.4%, while government school enrolments saw a slight decline of 0.2%.

ABS Head of Education Statistics, Mell Plumb, highlighted a significant long-term shift in the educational landscape.

"Between 2016 and 2025, we’ve seen enrolments in independent schools rise by 31%," Plumb noted.

This represents an additional 168,448 students choosing private education over the last decade, compared to a 5% increase in the government sector.

Enrolments for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students rose by 3.2% to 283,611, now representing 6.8% of the national student body.

The proportion of Indigenous students staying at school from Year 10 to Year 12 jumped to 59.7%, doubling the previous year's growth rate.

Overall, secondary school enrolments rose by 1.9% as more students remained in the system; the national retention rate from the start of high school to Year 12 climbed to 81.3%.