Australia raises wheat harvest estimate to 29.9M tonnes
- Australia raised its 2026/27 wheat harvest forecast to 29.9 million tonnes following favourable winter rainfall.
- GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) shares rose 0.9% following the government announcement.
- Rising global demand and Black Sea supply constraints are driving buyer interest towards Australian grain exports.
The Department of Agriculture increased Australia's 2026/27 wheat production forecast by 12% to 29.9 million tonnes.
The revised figure represents an upgrade from June estimates, though total output remains below last season's 36 million tonnes.
"This has resulted in the maturity of most crops being three to four weeks early, with well-above-average yield potential," stated the Department of Agriculture in its latest report.
Conflict in the Black Sea region has constrained regional grain supplies, prompting international buyers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to seek alternative sources.
Bendigo Bank analyst Rod Baker stated that Western Australia's wheat exports are projected to reach nearly 1 million tonnes this month, which is 29% above the 15-year September average.
Following the announcement, the GrainCorp share price was up at $6.24.
The government agency noted that strong winter rainfall across Victoria and South Australia offset earlier concerns regarding dry conditions and farm input shortages.
Despite lower planted acreage reducing total volume year-over-year, early crop maturity has significantly boosted overall harvest expectations across major grain-growing states.
