Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Tuesday that reflected a challenging cyclical downturn for the global grain giant.
The Chicago-based company posted 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.43 per share, a significant drop from the $4.74 reported in 2024, as an oversupply of South American crops and an uncertain U.S. regulatory landscape for biofuels pressured its core processing margins.
The company’s Ag Services & Oilseeds (AS&O) segment, typically its strongest engine, faced a "collapse" in crushing profits throughout the year.
Management cited the continued deferral of U.S. biofuel policy—specifically clarity on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs)—which has restrained domestic demand for soybean oil.
This regulatory vacuum, combined with aggressive industry capacity expansion, led to a 93% plunge in crushing subsegment operating profit in the third quarter alone, a trend that persisted into the end of the year.
Looking ahead, ADM issued a wide-ranging 2026 outlook, forecasting adjusted EPS between $3.60 and $4.25.
The company noted that the low end of this range assumes a continuation of the current policy "limbo" and flat crush margins.
However, the upper end of the guidance hinges on a "constructive" evolution of global trade and long-awaited clarity in U.S. biofuel mandates.
CEO Juan Luciano emphasized that the company is leaning into "self-help" measures, including a $500 million to $750 million cost-saving plan, to weather the volatility.
Despite the earnings contraction, ADM generated $5.5 billion in cash flow from operations in 2025 and continued its 53-year streak of dividend increases.