The Federal Government's National Disability Insurance Scheme is on a trajectory to eclipse the total economic contribution of Australia’s powerhouse mining sector within just two years, sparking urgent calls for a radical policy overhaul.
According to the latest government estimates, federal expenditure on the scheme is set to hit $52 billion this financial year, climbing to a projected $63.6 billion by 2029.
The figures—which exclude additional billions contributed by the states—place the NDIS on a collision course with the nation's "golden goose."
Data from a recent EY report indicates the mining industry generates approximately $59.4 billion annually through a combination of company taxes and royalties.
Critics label the current growth "unsustainable," pointing to rampant provider rorting and lax eligibility rules as primary drivers of the ballooning budget.
Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance chief economist John Humphreys described the scheme as a potential "budget-killer," noting it is already the second-largest federal program behind the aged pension.
"The consequence will be either higher taxes or a blowout in budget deficits," Dr Humphreys warned, arguing that only significant spending reductions can prevent long-term economic stagnation.
NDIS Minister Mark Butler did not respond to requests for comment regarding potential measures to curb the escalating expenditure.