XRP fell to an intraday low of $1.57 during the latest market-wide sell-off, putting its long-term price structure under renewed pressure.
The decline has brought XRP close to a potential breakdown below its 33-month exponential moving average, a level closely watched as a macro trend indicator.
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto said the move below the 33 EMA does not by itself end XRP’s cycle, but warned a confirmed monthly close below $1.60 would signal a macro bearish transition.
Historical chart patterns show XRP has largely respected the 33 EMA across multiple cycles, with sustained breaks often followed by extended corrective phases.
Despite the risk, the analysis suggests XRP could still stage an upside bounce, as previous major rallies emerged from oversold and compressed conditions rather than clear bull-market confirmations.
A scenario similar to the 2021 cycle would imply an upside move of about 340%, pointing toward the $7 region if structure stabilises.
A more extreme analogue to the 2017 cycle suggests a potential expansion of roughly 1,600% toward $27, while a sustained break below $1.60 risks panic selling and a reinforced macro bear narrative.
At the time of reporting, XRP price was $1.61.