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Crypto markets are moving away from the traditional four-year cycle as structural forces take over price discovery, according to Wintermute research.
The algorithmic trading firm shared its findings on Jan. 19, arguing that digital assets are beginning to trade more like global financial instruments.
“The traditional four-year cycle is becoming obsolete,”
Wintermute said.
“Market performance is no longer dictated by self-fulfilling timing narratives, but by where liquidity flows and investor mindshare concentrates,”
Wintermute said.
The analysis draws on Wintermute’s report examining over-the-counter trading behaviour during 2025.
Research showed that the expected post-halving rally failed to materialise across the broader market last year.
Historically, crypto-native capital rotated from bitcoin into ethereum and then into major tokens and altcoins.
That rotation weakened significantly in 2025 as exchange-traded funds and digital asset trusts absorbed sustained inflows.
Wintermute described these products as closed systems that concentrate liquidity in a narrow group of large-cap assets.
Reduced capital recycling has limited participation and price responsiveness across the wider crypto market.
Looking ahead, the firm outlined three main forces expected to drive crypto prices in 2026.
The first factor is whether ETFs and trusts expand beyond a small set of major assets.
Early filings linked to solana and XRP were highlighted as potential signals of broader institutional access.
The second driver depends on strong performance from bitcoin or ethereum.
A major rally in either asset could recreate a wealth effect and push capital further along the risk curve.
The third influence centres on investor attention and whether retail interest rotates back into crypto.
Wintermute said shifts away from equities tied to artificial intelligence and emerging technologies could support renewed crypto engagement.
The firm added that these dynamics will determine whether liquidity concentration eases or persists.
“Outcomes will depend on whether one of these catalysts meaningfully broadens liquidity beyond a handful of large-cap assets,”
Wintermute said.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $91,569.55.