Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to report its second consecutive annual decline in vehicle deliveries this Friday, as the loss of critical U.S. tax credits and a surge in global competition outweigh the recent launch of its most affordable models.
Analysts polled by Visible Alpha expect the electric vehicle pioneer to deliver approximately 432,810 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a 13% drop from the same period last year.
A more conservative company-compiled consensus of 20 analysts, released by Tesla on Monday, suggests a steeper 15% decline to 422,850 units.
For the full year, total deliveries are projected to settle around 1.65 million vehicles, marking an 8.3% retreat from 2024's total of 1.79 million.
The anticipated downturn follows a volatile year for the Austin-based automaker.
While sales saw a temporary bump in the third quarter as buyers rushed to claim federal tax credits before they expired in September, demand in the final months of the year has cooled significantly in North America and Europe.
To combat the slump, Tesla launched "Standard" versions of its best-selling Model Y and Model 3 in October.
Priced approximately $5,000 below previous base models, these stripped-down variants—starting at roughly $39,990 for the Model Y—are intended to defend Tesla's market share against a wave of affordable EVs from legacy automakers like Chevrolet and Ford, as well as dominant Chinese rivals.
Despite the sales pressure, Tesla's stock has remained resilient, rising 14% this year.
Investor optimism has largely shifted away from near-term delivery counts toward Elon Musk's long-term promises of robotaxis, humanoid robots (Optimus), and advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.
Musk’s personal fortune also received a significant boost this month.
On Dec. 19, the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated his landmark 2018 compensation package, which had been previously voided.
The ruling clears the path for Musk to claim options now worth tens of billions, contingent on hitting massive milestones—including a target to eventually deliver 20 million vehicles annually.