Quantum computing concerns have resurfaced across the crypto industry as major technology firms accelerate research and investment ahead of 2026.
Despite growing attention, experts widely agree that quantum computers will not be capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography next year.
The renewed debate follows announcements such as Microsoft’s unveiling of its Majorana 1 quantum chip earlier this year.
Industry specialists say the real issue is preparation rather than an imminent collapse of blockchain security.
Clark Alexander, co-founder and head of AI at Argentum AI, said quantum computing will have “extremely limited commercial use” in 2026.
The whole ‘quantum threat to Bitcoin’ narrative is 90% marketing and 10% imminent threat… we’re almost certainly at least a decade away.
Nic Puckrin said.
Bitcoin and most blockchains rely on public-key cryptography to secure wallets and validate transactions.
A sufficiently advanced quantum computer could theoretically derive private keys from exposed public keys.
This risk has attracted the attention of regulators, including the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
In September, the SEC’s crypto task force received a proposal warning that quantum advances could threaten digital asset encryption.
Cryptography experts agree that digital signature schemes represent the weakest point in current blockchain security.
Sofiia Kireieva of Boosty Labs said systems vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm face the greatest long-term risk.
She noted that Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signature algorithm is more exposed than its SHA-256 hashing functions.
Grover’s algorithm could speed up attacks on hashes, but the effect can be mitigated by increasing hash sizes.
Ahmad Shadid, founder of the O Foundation, said address reuse significantly increases vulnerability to quantum attacks.
Experts stressed that the physics and engineering barriers remain enormous.
Current quantum devices operate with only hundreds or thousands of unstable qubits.
A viable cryptographic attack would require millions of qubits, near-perfect error rates and sustained coherence.
The bottleneck is not just engineering — it is the fundamental physics of the universe.
Kireieva said.
Alexander added that even classical computing advances may pose a greater near-term risk than quantum systems.
The more immediate concern is the “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy used by attackers.
Sean Ren of Sahara AI said bad actors are already collecting encrypted data for future decryption.
Leo Fan of Cysic said adversaries may be stockpiling public blockchain data to exploit later.
Kireieva estimated that 25% to 30% of all Bitcoin remains in addresses with exposed public keys.
She advised users to avoid address reuse and prepare to migrate to quantum-resistant wallets.
Developers have already outlined plans to upgrade Bitcoin’s signature schemes.
In November, Qastle announced efforts to deploy quantum-grade security for crypto wallets.
Industry consensus holds that 2026 will not bring a quantum collapse.
However, experts agree that quantum risk awareness will become a top-tier security issue.
The likelihood that quantum becomes a top-tier risk factor for crypto security awareness in 2026 is high.
Fan said.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $87,200.96.