Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are raising the risk of an oil supply shock that could tighten global liquidity and trigger a fresh Bitcoin selloff.
Roughly 20% of global oil flows through the narrow corridor between Iran and Oman, and even without a formal closure, war-risk insurance premiums on tankers have surged more than 50%, fuelling projections that crude could spike to $120–$130 per barrel.
“Estimates suggest crude could jump to $120–$130 per barrel,”
Wrote analyst 0xNobler in a post.
A sustained oil rally would likely reignite global inflation pressures just as markets have been positioning for monetary easing, raising the prospect that the US Federal Reserve and other central banks delay or scale back anticipated rate cuts.
“Wars are generally inflationary, driving up commodity prices and widening fiscal deficits, and despite an initial knee-jerk selloff when the conflict began, it makes sense that we have subsequently seen Bitcoin prices recover over the weekend, given it also benefits from higher inflation expectations,”
Said 21Shares Head of Macro, Stephen Coltman.
Higher inflation expectations would likely push Treasury yields upward, tightening financial conditions and encouraging capital rotation away from high-beta assets such as cryptocurrencies, which have historically underperformed during periods of rising real yields and deleveraging.
With crypto markets operating շուրջ the clock and leverage elevated across derivatives platforms, traders are closely monitoring crude futures and bond markets as leading indicators, as a prolonged disruption could rapidly transform an energy shock into a broader liquidity-driven selloff.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $65,716.88.