Cboe eyes prediction markets with binary options return

Cboe Global Markets is in early talks to relaunch “all-or-nothing” binary options for retail investors, targeting the fast-growing prediction market sector, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The exchange is discussing the move with retail brokerages and market makers as it seeks a regulated alternative to platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which together logged about $17 billion in trading volume in January.

JJ Kinahan, Cboe’s head of retail expansion, said the exchange would apply “a lot of rigor” around legal and compliance requirements before listing any new contracts.

The proposed products would offer fixed payouts if a specific financial outcome is met, closely resembling the yes-or-no contracts widely used on prediction markets.

Cboe previously offered binary options tied to major indexes in 2008 but delisted them after limited uptake and heightened regulatory scrutiny.

The renewed push comes as event-driven trading expands rapidly, spanning markets tied to sports, politics and financial benchmarks.

Analysts at Galaxy Research said prediction markets have entered a “new phase of mainstream visibility,” even as liquidity constraints remain a challenge.