Cantor Fitzgerald said crypto markets may be entering the early stages of a new downturn heading into 2026.
The firm described the current phase as a potential crypto winter aligned with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle.
Analyst Brett Knoblauch said Bitcoin is roughly 85 days past its most recent peak.
He warned prices could remain under pressure for months.
Bitcoin could potentially test Strategy’s average breakeven price near $75,000, according to the report.
Unlike previous downturns, Cantor does not expect widespread liquidations or systemic failures.
Institutional investors are now driving market trends rather than retail traders.
Knoblauch highlighted a widening gap between token prices and onchain activity.
Decentralised finance, tokenisation and infrastructure development continue to expand beneath the surface.
Real-world asset tokenisation was identified as a major growth engine.
Cantor said the value of tokenised RWAs tripled this year to $18.5 billion.
The firm projected that onchain RWAs could surpass $50 billion in 2026.
Credit products, US Treasuries and tokenised equities are leading adoption.
Financial institutions are increasingly experimenting with onchain settlement.
Trading behaviour is also shifting across the crypto ecosystem.
Decentralised exchanges are gaining market share from centralised platforms.
Cantor expects DEX growth to continue even if overall trading volumes fall.
Perpetual futures on DEXs were highlighted as a key area of expansion.
Regulatory clarity was described as a critical catalyst for institutional engagement.
The US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act was cited as a turning point.
The law defines when digital assets are securities versus commodities.
It assigns primary spot market oversight to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Cantor said the framework reduces headline risk for banks and asset managers.
Onchain prediction markets were also flagged as a fast-growing segment.
Volumes in sports-related prediction markets have exceeded $5.9 billion.
Firms including Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini have entered the space.
Risks remain if Bitcoin breaks below key cost-basis levels, the report warned.
Cantor said digital asset trusts have slowed accumulation as prices compress.
The firm concluded that infrastructure and institutional foundations are strengthening despite softer prices.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $87,092.87.