Market analysts are divided over whether Bitcoin’s long-observed four-year market cycle has broken down in 2025.
The debate centres on the growing influence of institutional investment, regulatory shifts, and exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is traditionally linked to halving events that reduce miner rewards and new supply.
Historically, halvings were followed by accumulation, a bull market peak roughly 18 months later, and a prolonged downturn.
Some analysts argue current price action still reflects this pattern despite increased market complexity.
Bitcoin has fallen roughly 30% from its post-halving peak and entered what some describe as a bearish phase.
Others believe structural changes have altered the market’s historical rhythm.
Nick Ruck said the halving cycle began to weaken in 2025 due to sustained institutional demand.
Institutional flows through ETFs and corporate treasuries have reduced volatility and softened post-peak crashes.
Nick Ruck said.
We expect consolidation near term but believe the bull market will extend into 2026.
Nick Ruck said.
Grayscale forecast a new Bitcoin all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing macro demand and US regulatory support.
We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called four-year cycle.
Grayscale said.
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said the cycle theory is “no longer valid.”
Kendrick revised the bank’s forecast, predicting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Several industry leaders agree the cycle has faded amid structural market shifts.
Cathie Wood, Arthur Hayes, Ki Young Ju, Matt Hougan, Hunter Horsley, and Raoul Pal have all expressed scepticism about the cycle’s relevance.
Other analysts insist the four-year pattern remains intact.
Markus Thielen said Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025.
Bitcoin became the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy.
Markus Thielen said.
Analyst Rekt Capital said the cycle may be evolving rather than ending.
If BTC’s four-year cycle is broken, it’s probably just levelling up.
Rekt Capital said.
Some analysts argue trader expectations may be reinforcing downturns.
PlanB said selling pressure reflects trauma from previous cycles.
Most selling is driven by OGs expecting a bear market.
PlanB said.
Alex Wacy said expectations, not cycles, have shifted.
Cycles don’t always end, sometimes they stretch.
Alex Wacy said.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $87,244.09.