Market analysts are divided over whether Bitcoin’s long-observed four-year market cycle has broken down in 2025.
The debate centres on the growing influence of institutional investment, regulatory shifts, and exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is traditionally linked to halving events that reduce miner rewards and new supply.
Historically, halvings were followed by accumulation, a bull market peak roughly 18 months later, and a prolonged downturn.
Some analysts argue current price action still reflects this pattern despite increased market complexity.
Bitcoin has fallen roughly 30% from its post-halving peak and entered what some describe as a bearish phase.
Others believe structural changes have altered the market’s historical rhythm.
Nick Ruck said the halving cycle began to weaken in 2025 due to sustained institutional demand.
Institutional flows through ETFs and corporate treasuries have reduced volatility and softened post-peak crashes.
Nick Ruck said.
We expect consolidation near term but believe the bull market will extend into 2026.
Nick Ruck said.
Grayscale forecast a new Bitcoin all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing macro demand and US regulatory support.