Bitcoin’s drop to around $60,000 may represent the halfway stage of the current bear market rather than a definitive cycle bottom, according to Kaiko Research.
The cryptocurrency fell as low as $59,930 on Friday, its weakest level since October 2024, marking a 32% correction since the 2024 halving event.
“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,”
Kaiko said in a research note.
Kaiko highlighted a 30% decline in aggregate spot trading volumes across the ten largest centralised exchanges, from roughly $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November, alongside a 14% drop in combined Bitcoin and Ether futures open interest.
The firm described the retracement from Bitcoin’s prior $126,000 peak as unusually shallow at 52%, noting that historical bear markets have typically seen drawdowns of between 60% and 68%, implying a potential bottom closer to $40,000–$50,000.
Other analysts remain divided, with MEXC Research’s Shawn Young arguing that oversold indicators suggest a rebound is a matter of timing rather than probability, while Nansen’s Nicolai Sondergaard cautioned that it remains unclear whether the conventional four-year cycle structure still applies.
Some market participants, including MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe, have called the $60,000 level a local bottom, citing extreme negative sentiment and a relative strength index reading last observed during prior major cycle lows.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $67,443.16.