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Vitalik downplays fears as prediction markets face US scrutiny

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished dez. 26 2025Last Updated dez. 26 2025

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Prediction markets have become a focal point of regulatory and political debate in the United States as trading volumes expand beyond politics into sports and global events.

Critics argue that event-based contracts create unhealthy incentives that could undermine democratic processes and sporting integrity.

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have driven the latest controversy as sports-related contracts now dominate overall trading activity.

At Kalshi, sports events account for more than 90% of total volume, reflecting rapid expansion into territory traditionally occupied by sportsbooks.

Several US states have moved to classify prediction markets as gambling products subject to local gaming regulations.

Operators have rejected that approach, insisting prediction markets function as derivatives and should fall under federal oversight.

The jurisdictional dispute has turned prediction markets into a legal battleground with implications for long-term accessibility.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has emerged as a prominent defender of prediction markets amid the backlash.

The worst thing these markets could do in theory, is create incentives for people to cause harm by making it easy to profit.

Vitalik Buterin said.

He argued that such incentives already exist throughout traditional financial markets.

If you are a political actor with a ‘CAUSE DISASTER’ button, then you could be motivated to press it simply by shorting all the stocks.

Vitalik Buterin said.

Buterin said singling out prediction markets ignores the long-standing role of short selling and derivatives in global finance.

Sports organisations have become some of the most vocal opponents of event-based trading platforms.

National Football League executive Jeff Miller warned lawmakers that certain contracts pose “substantially greater risks to contest integrity.”

He highlighted markets tied to in-game language or officiating outcomes as particularly concerning.

Critics argue these contracts could influence players, officials or broadcasters, even if indirectly.

Beyond sports, geopolitical and policy-linked contracts have triggered sharper ethical objections.

On Polymarket, traders can take positions on leadership changes, conflicts and central bank decisions.

Detractors say these markets introduce moral hazards by allowing financial exposure to war or regime change.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed tightening rules on certain event contracts.

The agency described contracts tied to terrorism, assassination or war as morally “offensive.”

Supporters counter that prediction markets function as information tools rather than incentives for harm.

Economists argue markets that aggregate financial stakes often outperform polls in measuring collective expectations.

Buterin compared prediction markets to social media rather than gambling platforms.

The thing to compare them to is social media.

Vitalik Buterin said.

He argued that market prices force participants to back opinions with capital instead of outrage.

I can personally report a few times reading a news headline, feeling scared, then checking Polymarket prices and feeling calmer.

Vitalik Buterin said.

He cited a 2024 example where traders assigned a low probability to civil unrest despite alarming rhetoric online.

Analysts say regulatory outcomes will shape whether prediction markets remain niche or move further into mainstream finance.

If classified as gambling, platforms may face fragmented state-by-state compliance.

If treated as derivatives, federal oversight would increase but with stricter compliance standards.

Observers say the debate reflects a broader struggle over how financial innovation should be regulated.

At the time of reporting, Ethereum price was $2,905.32.