A United States lawmaker has introduced new legislation aimed at restricting political prediction market trading by government insiders following a high-profile wager linked to Venezuela’s leadership.
The proposal emerged after a user on Polymarket reportedly earned more than $400,000 from a contract predicting the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The bet was placed days before US forces carried out a military operation that resulted in Maduro’s capture and transfer to New York to face criminal charges.
The timing of the trade sparked concerns about insider trading and the potential misuse of privileged government information.
New York Representative Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 in response to the incident.
Torres said the episode exposed risks when elected officials and government staff participate in political prediction markets.
The bill seeks to prohibit federal officials and congressional staff from trading prediction contracts tied to political outcomes or government actions.
The restriction would apply when officials possess, or could reasonably access, material nonpublic information through their official roles.