Prediction market data from Polymarket suggests the US–Iran war could end by June 2026, with the highest trading volumes clustering around a resolution by the end of the second quarter.
The pricing shows low probability for an early exit in March, with odds increasing through April and May before peaking in June as expectations shift toward a mid-year resolution.
The outlook comes as political pressure builds, including the resignation of US counterterrorism chief Joe Kent, which reportedly reflected internal disagreement over the war’s direction.
At the same time, backchannel diplomacy has resumed, with US and Iranian officials reopening direct communication lines, signalling early-stage efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Economic constraints are also shaping expectations, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices above $100, increasing global inflation risks and limiting appetite for a prolonged conflict.
International dynamics further complicate escalation, with key European and Asian allies declining US requests for additional military support in the region.
Domestic pressure is rising ahead of US midterm elections, adding urgency for policymakers to define an exit strategy rather than sustain a long conflict.
Analysts say these combined factors make a drawn-out war less likely, with markets increasingly expecting a managed resolution by mid-2026.